How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz has resumed limited commercial shipping after a months-long closure triggered by US–Iran conflict, with traffic showing cautious recovery over the weekend of July 4–5, 2026 [5]. This marks the first sustained outbound movement since the bottleneck crisis of late June, when zero commercial vessels were recorded crossing eastbound [1].

Historically, post-closure weeks in the Hormuz corridor see 15–25 transits as tankers, containers, and bulk carriers re-enter the Persian Gulf, but volumes remain 40–60% below pre-conflict levels [3][5]. The current 82% YES probability implies the market expects roughly 20 ships, aligning with the early recovery phase seen after the interim US–Iran deal signed on June 18, which triggered a resumption of tanker traffic [4].

Traders should monitor daily IMF Portwatch finalisations for July 6–12, particularly whether outbound tanker counts rise above the 4–6 per day seen in the first recovery week [1][5]. Key catalysts include the status of the temporary cease-fire, any new tolls or mine threats from Tehran, and whether OPEC Plus’ Sunday production hike accelerates Gulf departures [5]. A sudden drop in outbound traffic would signal renewed Iranian disruption, while sustained daily counts above 5 would confirm the recovery trend.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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