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Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas

How the prediction market is pricing "Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas 65% Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 2 Winner 64% Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Match O/U 22.5 62% Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Match O/U 21.5 61% Volume: $177K Liquidity: $193K Closes: 20 Jul 2026
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Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
65% 35% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
65% 35% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas65%
Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 2 Winner64%
Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Match O/U 22.562%
Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Match O/U 21.561%
Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 1 O/U 9.561%
Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 1 Winner54%
Completed Match51%
Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Match O/U 23.551%
Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 1 O/U 8.550%
Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 2 O/U 9.550%
Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 1 O/U 10.550%
Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 2 O/U 10.550%
Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Total Sets: O/U 2.543%
Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 2 O/U 8.539%
Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set Handicap +/-1.538%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, swedish open: jesper de jong vs vilius gaubas stands at 65% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Jesper de Jong and Vilius Gaubas in the Swedish Open, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve …

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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Related Topics

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