Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| Texas State vs. San Diego State | 95% |
| Spread -1.5 | 92% |
| Spread -2.5 | 91% |
| Spread -3.5 | 90% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 11.5 | 90% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 13.5 | 90% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 15.5 | 90% |
| Spread -5.5 | 89% |
| Spread -4.5 | 89% |
| O/U 39.5 | 88% |
| Spread -6.5 | 87% |
| O/U 41.5 | 86% |
| Spread -7.5 | 84% |
| Texas State O/U 20.5 | 80% |
| Texas State O/U 23.5 | 79% |
| Spread -10.5 | 78% |
| O/U 35.5 | 78% |
| O/U 37.5 | 78% |
| O/U 43.5 | 74% |
| O/U 45.5 | 72% |
| Spread -13.5 | 71% |
| O/U 47.5 | 69% |
| Spread -8.5 | 68% |
| O/U 49.5 | 65% |
| Spread -14.5 | 64% |
| Spread -16.5 | 60% |
| O/U 53.5 | 56% |
| Spread -17.5 | 54% |
| O/U 55.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Texas State vs. San Diego State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Texas State vs. San Diego State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Texas State vs. San Diego State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Texas State vs. San Diego State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas State vs. San Diego State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas State vs. San Diego State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 49% |
| Spread -20.5 | 48% |
| O/U 57.5 | 32% |
| San Diego State O/U 23.5 | 31% |
| O/U 65.5 | 30% |
| O/U 67.5 | 28% |
| Spread -17.5 | 27% |
| O/U 59.5 | 27% |
| Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| O/U 71.5 | 25% |
| O/U 73.5 | 24% |
| O/U 61.5 | 22% |
| O/U 63.5 | 18% |
| O/U 69.5 | 9% |
| Spread -1.5 | 6% |
| Spread -4.5 | 6% |
| O/U 75.5 | 6% |
| Spread -2.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -3.5 | 4% |
| Spread -5.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -6.5 | 3% |
| Spread -7.5 | 3% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, texas state vs. san diego state stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between Texas State and San Diego State, scheduled for October 3 at 10:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas State" if Texas State win t…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $580K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Texas State vs. San Diego State. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?
- Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.
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