Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score

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Market context

Sweden and Tunisia meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June at 10:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 8% implied probability, reflecting the difficulty of predicting a precise scoreline in international football. Settlement captures only the 90-minute result plus stoppage time; any other final score triggers the "Any Other Score" catch-all category.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in World Cup group matches typically see winning probabilities cluster between 5% and 12% for most scorelines, with 1–0 and 2–1 results occupying the upper end. Sweden and Tunisia have not faced each other in competitive fixtures, limiting direct head-to-head patterns. Sweden's recent World Cup form—reaching the quarter-finals in 2018 and the group stage in 2022—establishes them as the stronger side on paper. Tunisia qualified for 2026 after finishing second in African qualifying; their tournament record shows inconsistent attacking output, with group-stage exits in 2018 and 2022 following narrow defeats. The 8% probability likely reflects consensus that a specific scoreline is inherently improbable rather than a particular mismatch in quality.

Traders should monitor team news through May and early June 2026, particularly injury updates for Sweden's key midfielders and Tunisia's defensive shape. Fixture congestion in the days before 14 June—depending on whether either nation plays a preceding match—may affect squad rotation and fatigue levels. Official squad announcements typically arrive four weeks before the tournament; any late withdrawals or surprise inclusions could shift expected attacking intensity and defensive solidity, directly influencing which scorelines become more or less plausible.

Methodology

We track Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.