Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 72% |
| Completed Match | 51% |
| Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin Set 2 Winner | 48% |
| Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 46% |
| Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin Match O/U 23.5 | 46% |
| Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin Match O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin Set 1 Winner | 38% |
| Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin | 34% |
| Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 24% |
| Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 20% |
Market context
The Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin prediction market currently prices this outcome at 72% YES. This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolas Arseneault and Andres Martin in the Granby, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Arseneaul…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin on Champions League Prediction
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →