Belgium vs. Egypt - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Belgium and Egypt meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 15 June, with the match scheduled for 3:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 11% implied probability, reflecting the difficulty of predicting a specific scoreline rather than the likelihood of either side winning. Settlement occurs at the final whistle after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.

Belgium's recent trajectory offers limited precedent for high-scoring performances. In qualifying for the 2026 tournament, they averaged 1.8 goals per match whilst conceding 0.6 per game—a defensive record that suggests low-scoring contests. Egypt's qualifying campaign showed greater volatility, with matches ranging from 1–0 wins to 4–1 victories, though they typically defend deeper. Head-to-head records between these nations are sparse; their last competitive meeting was a 1–0 Egypt victory in 2019 African Cup of Nations qualifying. The 11% probability aligns with historical patterns where exact scores in World Cup group matches cluster around 1–0, 1–1, and 2–1 outcomes, which collectively account for roughly 40% of all group-stage results since 2010.

Traders should monitor squad announcements through May 2026, particularly Belgium's availability of key midfielders and Egypt's forward depth. Injury updates to either side's primary striker will shift scoring expectations materially. Fixture congestion in the days preceding 15 June—both teams may play earlier group matches on 11 or 12 June—could influence tactical approach and fatigue levels. Any late managerial changes or suspension announcements from earlier matches will carry direct bearing on line-up composition and expected goal output.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.