Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 96% |
| Yahia Fofana: 2+ saves | 75% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots | 72% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots | 63% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals + assists | 59% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Yahia Fofana: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jens Hauge: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Amad Diallo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Egil Selvik: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Egil Selvik: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Egil Selvik: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Egil Selvik: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 44% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 5+ shots | 40% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 33% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 20% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals | 11% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup Round of 32 clash between Côte d’Ivoire and Norway at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, scheduled for 1:00 PM ET on 30 June 2026. With Norway holding a narrow +105 moneyline advantage and both teams possessing sharp attacks but leaky defences, the market-implied 16% YES probability for Côte d’Ivoire player props reflects a cautious view of the underdog’s offensive output despite their +265 upset odds.
Historically, similar knockout matches where a top-tier striker like Erling Haaland faces a defensively vulnerable but high-tempo side (such as Ivory Coast’s predicted 4-3-3) have produced frequent player-prop value on anytime goalscorers and over 2.5 goals. FanDuel research explicitly backs Ivory Coast at +140 as value, noting Norway’s negative expected goals differential of -0.26 per 90 minutes, while VSiN identifies Both Teams To Score Yes (-155) and Over 2.5 Goals (-125) as standout plays, suggesting player props tied to Haaland and Côte d’Ivoire attackers are likely to settle favourably.
Traders should monitor final line-up confirmations for Norway’s Haaland and Côte d’Ivoire’s Amad Diallo, both currently listed as doubts, alongside Singo’s hamstring issue and Agbadou’s return to the Ivorian defence. The 1:00 PM ET kick-off time means pre-match squad announcements will settle by 12:00 PM ET, and any late injury updates could shift player-prop pricing significantly. Recent coverage from Dimers predicts a 1-1 correct score, reinforcing the likelihood of both teams scoring and Haaland finding the net, making his anytime goalscorer prop (-115) a high-probability anchor for this market.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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