Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| SK Iberia 1999 O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SK Iberia 1999 O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| SK Iberia 1999 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SK Iberia 1999 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Flora 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| FC Flora O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| FC Flora O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| SK Iberia 1999 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SK Iberia 1999 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Flora 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| SK Iberia 1999 (-1.5) | 29% |
| FC Flora O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| SK Iberia 1999 O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| SK Iberia 1999 (-2.5) | 19% |
| O/U 4.5 | 18% |
| O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| FC Flora (-1.5) | 1% |
| FC Flora (-2.5) | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Flora 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Flora 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
SK Iberia 1999 Tiflis and FC Flora Tallinn meet at Stadioni Mikheil Meskhi for a UEFA Champions League qualifier scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on 14 July 2026. The 29% crowd-implied probability for the additional markets reflects Flora’s superior recent continental form against Georgian opposition, though Iberia’s home advantage in Tiflis historically compresses margins in early-round fixtures. Comparable qualifiers from the 2023–24 season show similar probabilities when a Baltic club faces a Georgian side with minimal European experience, where the market often underprices the home team’s defensive resilience in the first half.
Key catalysts include the final squad announcements expected one hour before kick-off, particularly regarding Flora’s midfield suspension and Iberia’s centre-back injury status. Sky Sports confirms Flora Tallinn’s recent 3–1 victory over a Lithuanian opponent, suggesting attacking momentum, yet notes Iberia 1999 Tiflis have conceded only two goals in their last five domestic matches[1]. Traders must monitor the official UEFA team news for any late withdrawals, as Flora’s reliance on a single prolific striker makes them vulnerable if that player is ruled out. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC, meaning any post-match disciplinary decisions affecting market settlement will be finalised before the deadline.
Sources: 1
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for SK Iberia 1999 vs. FC Flora - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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