LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

Shopify Rebellion’s meeting with Disguised is the same matchup that Shopify swept 2-0 in May, extending a head-to-head edge that now reads 4-1 in series and 5-1 in maps across the recent sample.[1][2] That history matters because the market is already priced at a 100% yes, which effectively assumes the game is played and the result follows the established pattern rather than a live upset narrative. In comparable recent meetings, Shopify have repeatedly found cleaner side-selection and mid-game execution against Disguised, including the 2-0 on 16 May that ended a five-match losing run for Shopify.[2][11]

The main trading catalysts are roster and schedule confirmation rather than any known injury or suspension angle, as no comparable absence news appears in the available match reports.[1][3] Shopify’s broader summer form has been mixed, with one preview noting a 31% overall win rate and a weaker run over the last six months, while Disguised’s results were also described as inconsistent and bottom-half.[3] The practical risk to a 100% settlement is administrative rather than competitive: if the series is not played, is delayed beyond the seven-day window, or is abandoned before completion without a winner, the market resolves 50-50 under the stated rules.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.