Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 30.5 | 94% |
| O/U 31.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 93% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 92% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 91% |
| O/U 33.5 | 90% |
| O/U 34.5 | 90% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 90% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 89% |
| O/U 35.5 | 88% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| O/U 36.5 | 87% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 86% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 85% |
| O/U 37.5 | 84% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 84% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 83% |
| O/U 38.5 | 82% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 82% |
| O/U 39.5 | 80% |
| O/U 40.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 76% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 75% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 74% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| O/U 41.5 | 73% |
| Spread -1.5 | 72% |
| O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 71% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| O/U 43.5 | 69% |
| Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| O/U 44.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| O/U 45.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 63% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 63% |
| Spread -3.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 62% |
| O/U 46.5 | 61% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| Spread -4.5 | 59% |
| O/U 47.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 58% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| O/U 49.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 21+ | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Bills: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| O/U 51.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 45% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 44% |
| O/U 52.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 43% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 43% |
| Spread -8.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 42% |
| Spread -9.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 41% |
| O/U 53.5 | 40% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| O/U 54.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 37% |
| Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 35% |
| O/U 55.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| O/U 56.5 | 33% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| Spread -13.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| 1H Moneyline | 31% |
| O/U 57.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 29% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Patriots vs. Bills | 27% |
| Spread -14.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| O/U 58.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 25% |
| O/U 59.5 | 24% |
| Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 24% |
| Spread -16.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| O/U 60.5 | 21% |
| O/U 61.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| Spread -19.5 | 18% |
| O/U 62.5 | 18% |
| O/U 63.5 | 17% |
| Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Spread -4.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| O/U 64.5 | 15% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 15% |
| O/U 65.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 14% |
| Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| Spread -21.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| O/U 67.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 14-20 | 10% |
| O/U 69.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| O/U 71.5 | 7% |
| Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 7% |
| Safety? | 7% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 96% probability to patriots vs. bills. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If the game is postponed, th…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.0M.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Patriots vs. Bills. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?
- Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.
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