Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin

Platform comparison

Market context

Nicolas Arseneault and Andres Martin are scheduled to meet in the Granby tournament on 13 July 2026, with the match originally set for 10:00 AM ET. The current crowd-implied probability of 34% for Arseneault suggests Martin is favoured, though the Canadian's recent trajectory and seeding position will determine whether that assessment holds. Both players compete primarily on the ATP Challenger circuit, where surface preference and recent form shifts can substantially alter match outcomes. The settlement window extends to 20 July, allowing seven days for the match to be completed; any cancellation or delay beyond that threshold triggers a 50-50 resolution.

Arseneault's recent record on hard courts—the likely surface at Granby—should be cross-referenced against Martin's performance in similar conditions over the past three months. Head-to-head records between Challenger-level competitors often favour the player with more recent tournament wins or a higher ranking. Martin's positioning as the implied favourite at 66% suggests either superior ranking, recent momentum, or a documented advantage in their historical matchups. Traders should monitor official tournament draws and any late withdrawals, as Challenger events occasionally see schedule adjustments when higher-ranked players enter or withdraw.

Injury reports and player availability confirmations typically emerge 48–72 hours before Challenger matches. The ATP's official website and the tournament's draw announcements will clarify seeding and court assignments. Any changes to either player's fitness status or competing commitments in the preceding week could shift the probability materially, particularly if one player is managing a minor injury or competing in a preceding event that extends recovery time.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.