Highest temperature in Beijing on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s July climate is defined by intense heat and high humidity, with the city regularly experiencing peak temperatures that challenge historical records. In 2023, the highest temperature recorded in July reached 40°C, while recent years have seen unprecedented heatwaves sweeping across northern China, with many areas exceeding 35°C [1][7]. The Beijing Capital International Airport Station, the designated resolution point for this market, typically records daily highs around 31°C (88°F), rarely falling below 26°C or exceeding 35°C [2]. Given that the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 12 July 2026—just before the local afternoon peak—the 0% crowd-implied probability likely reflects skepticism that the day’s absolute maximum will be captured within the truncated window, rather than doubt about July’s overall heat intensity.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station (ZBAA) as the day progresses, particularly any sudden spikes linked to the intensifying heat dome currently over the North China Plain [10]. A key catalyst is the timing of the peak temperature relative to the 12:00 UTC cutoff; if the highest reading occurs after 20:00 local time, the market will resolve NO regardless of how extreme the heat becomes. Recent reports confirm China experienced its hottest July on record in 2023, with temperatures above 40°C at the Nanjiao observatory, suggesting the potential for extreme outliers if similar conditions recur [5]. Watch for official meteorological bulletins from China Daily or Reuters confirming whether the heatwave persists through mid-July, as these will directly influence the likelihood of a record-breaking high before the settlement deadline [7][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.