Highest temperature in Beijing on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's weather in early June typically sits in the warm-to-hot range as the city transitions into summer. Historical data from the Capital International Airport Station shows June daily highs averaging 28–32°C, with occasional spikes above 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will occur or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish a baseline view. June 9th falls within a period when atmospheric conditions can shift rapidly between cooler, wetter patterns driven by early monsoon influence and drier, hotter continental air masses pushing down from the north.

Recent June patterns at Beijing's airport station reveal considerable year-to-year variability. In 2023, June 9th recorded a high of 31°C; in 2022, it reached 29°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on June 9th, which aligns with local afternoon hours when daily maximums typically occur. Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts from late May onwards, particularly any signals of sustained high-pressure systems or tropical moisture intrusions. The China Meteorological Administration's 10-day outlook, updated regularly through early June, will provide the most actionable guidance on whether conditions favour the cooler ranges (under 30°C) or warmer bands (32°C and above).

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.