Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas will experience its peak summer heat on 12 July 2026, with the Dallas Love Field station expected to record the day’s highest temperature in degrees Fahrenheit. Current forecasts for July 2026 indicate daily highs between 96°F and 102°F at this location, making a sub-90°F outcome statistically implausible and explaining the crowd-implied 0% probability for lower-range resolutions[2].

Historical July data for Dallas Love Field shows average monthly temperatures around 85.6°F, but daily peaks routinely exceed 100°F during mid-summer heatwaves[8]. Comparable cases from recent years confirm that temperatures below 90°F on 12 July are exceptionally rare, with the station consistently recording highs well above this threshold in past July periods[2][8]. This long-term pattern strongly supports the market’s current pricing, which effectively rules out cooler outcomes.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from the National Weather Service and Wunderground as the settlement window closes, particularly any sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns that could suppress peak temperatures[1][10]. While no specific weather announcements have been issued yet, the forecast model from AccuWeather remains the primary reference for expected highs, and any deviation from its 96–102°F range would be a critical signal[2]. The resolution source is fixed to Wunderground’s official daily high for KDAL, so traders must track that platform directly as 12 July approaches.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.