Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that highest value. Historical climatology for Guangzhou in July shows daily highs consistently clustering around 33°C to 35°C, rarely dipping below 29°C or exceeding 39°C, making a 0% probability for a specific lower threshold appear statistically misaligned with long-term averages [1][2].

Comparable cases from recent years confirm that July is the hottest month, with average temperatures hovering near 28.3°C overall but daily peaks frequently reaching 33°C to 35°C, and extreme events pushing toward 39°C [4][6]. The current crowd-implied 0% probability for a lower temperature range contradicts this robust historical pattern, suggesting the market may be underpricing the likelihood of typical summer highs in this subtropical region.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for any sudden shifts in weather patterns or official announcements from the China Meteorological Administration regarding extreme heat events [2][3]. Recent records indicate China experienced its hottest month in recent history in July 2024, with national averages eclipsing previous highs, a trend that could influence 2026 conditions if similar atmospheric drivers persist [5]. Watch for scheduled weather bulletins and any unexpected heatwave declarations that could push temperatures toward the upper 30s.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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FAQ

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