Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the peak daily maximum temperature Hong Kong will record on 30 June 2026, as measured by the Hong Kong Observatory. With a crowd-implied probability of 94% YES for the highest temperature falling in the expected range, traders are betting on a continuation of the city’s intensifying heat trend. Historical data frames this probability strongly: 2025 was Hong Kong’s hottest year since records began in 1884, breaking 35 temperature records, including the highest absolute maximum for June at 35.6°C[1][9]. The seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 explicitly states temperatures are expected to be above-normal due to climate warming and current ENSO conditions[2].

Traders should watch the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Daily Extract” publication, which will confirm the absolute daily max once data is finalized[5]. Recent forecasts for June 2026 show daily highs ranging from 86°F to 91°F (30°C to 33°C), with an average high of 89°F[6]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or rainfall could alter the peak temperature, though the long-term trend points upward[2]. The key dependency is the official release of the climatological data, which currently remains unpublished for this date[7]. Until the Observatory confirms the figure, the 94% probability rests on the robust pattern of rising summer temperatures documented over the past two years[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.