Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Kuala Lumpur International Airport on 16 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning readings taken after noon local time (which is UTC+8) will not factor into resolution.

Kuala Lumpur's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the airport station shows daily highs cluster between 32–34°C during this month, with extreme readings above 35°C occurring in fewer than 5% of cases over the past two decades. The city's equatorial location and monsoon season patterns create stable atmospheric conditions; significant deviations from the 33°C median require either unusual high-pressure systems or reduced cloud cover during peak afternoon hours. Comparable August dates at the same station have rarely exceeded 36°C, establishing a narrow band of plausible outcomes.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a technical misunderstanding of the market mechanics or extreme confidence in a specific temperature range. Monitoring should focus on any tropical weather systems developing in the South China Sea during early August 2026, as these can suppress afternoon temperatures through increased cloud cover and convective activity. The Malaysian Meteorological Department's 10-day forecasts, typically issued around 6 August, will provide the first reliable indication of atmospheric conditions. Airport station readings can also be affected by maintenance schedules or sensor recalibration, though Weather Underground generally maintains consistent measurement protocols.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

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Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.