Highest temperature in Madrid on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid's highest temperature on 15 August 2026 will be measured at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, with settlement determined by the Weather Underground Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The market currently prices a 2% probability for temperatures exceeding the threshold implied by the YES option, suggesting traders expect a relatively moderate day by Madrid's August standards.

Historical August data for Madrid shows daily highs typically range between 32–36°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 38–40°C during heat waves. The airport station, located on the city's outskirts, generally records slightly cooler readings than central Madrid due to its elevation and proximity to less urbanised areas. August 2023 saw Madrid experience temperatures above 40°C on multiple dates during an extended heat wave, whilst August 2024 remained closer to seasonal norms. The 2% probability reflects either a relatively conservative threshold in the market's construction or trader expectations of near-normal conditions for mid-August.

Relevant catalysts include European weather pattern forecasts issued in late July and early August 2026, which will clarify whether high-pressure systems typical of southern European summers persist or whether Atlantic systems bring cooler air masses. Spain's meteorological agency (AEMET) typically issues extended forecasts 10–14 days ahead; traders should monitor these releases for shifts in predicted pressure patterns. The specific resolution source—Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Madrid-Barajas—requires confirmation of data availability and consistency, as airport weather stations occasionally experience reporting gaps or calibration adjustments that could affect settlement interpretation.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Madrid on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?

Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.