Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 30 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to any “yes” result. This reflects a near-universal expectation that temperatures will stay within the typical June range, which historically sees daily highs decreasing from 91°F to 89°F (32.8°C to 31.7°C), rarely dropping below 84°F (28.9°C) or exceeding 95°F (35°C)[1]. Recent records support this: Metro Manila’s all-time peak of 38.8°C was logged at the same airport in April 2024, while yesterday’s highest in Pasay City reached 36.0°C—still below extreme thresholds[2][3]. Even the most recent 15-day data shows a peak of 98.6°F (37°C) on 17 June 2026, suggesting no immediate anomaly[4].

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s daily weather bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time updates for the airport station, as any sudden spike above 37°C would invalidate the current pricing. A key catalyst is the onset of the southwest monsoon, which typically begins in late June and brings cooler, wetter conditions that suppress peak temperatures. According to ABS-CBN, monsoon-driven rainfall in Metro Manila has consistently lowered maximum temperatures by 2–3°C in recent years[3]. Additionally, watch for any official announcements regarding heatwave advisories or unusual atmospheric pressure shifts, as these could signal a deviation from seasonal norms. With settlement ending 12:00 UTC on 30 June, timing is critical—any late-morning surge could alter the market’s resolution before the window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.