Highest temperature in Munich on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's highest temperature on 14 July 2026 will be measured at the airport weather station and resolved against historical records for that specific date. July typically brings warm conditions to Bavaria, with average highs around 24–25°C, though heat waves can push readings significantly higher.

Munich has recorded temperatures exceeding 30°C on mid-July dates in recent decades. The summer of 2022 saw multiple days above 35°C across Bavaria during comparable periods, whilst 2021 experienced sustained heat in the low 30s throughout July. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation of cooler-than-normal conditions or uncertainty about the exact threshold being wagered. Historical volatility in European summer weather means single-day extremes can deviate substantially from seasonal norms, particularly if Atlantic systems bring cooler air or if high-pressure systems establish themselves over central Europe.

Traders should monitor medium-range forecasting models from mid-July onwards, as the 500-millibar pattern and positioning of the jet stream will determine whether warm continental air or cooler maritime influences dominate Munich's weather on the settlement date. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) publishes extended outlooks that typically become reliable 10–14 days ahead. Any significant heat dome developing across western or central Europe in early July would shift probabilities materially, as would established low-pressure systems tracking northward from the Mediterranean. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, so morning readings will be final.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on July 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.