Highest temperature in Paris on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is set to experience sunny intervals with a forecasted high of 34°C on 13 July 2026, matching the current market frontrunner for this weather event[1][4]. The crowd-implied probability of 1% for a specific outlier outcome suggests traders are pricing in a near-certain alignment with typical mid-summer conditions rather than a record-breaking anomaly. Historically, July is the hottest month at Paris–Le Bourget Airport, with an average high of 76°F (24.4°C), though extreme heatwaves have pushed temperatures significantly higher in recent years[2]. The all-time record for Paris stands at 42.4°C, recorded on 25 July 2019, demonstrating that while 34°C is a strong peak, it remains well below the absolute ceiling for the region[3].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, as this is the definitive resolution source for the highest temperature recorded at the station[1]. While the current forecast indicates 34°C, rapid shifts in atmospheric pressure or unexpected Saharan air intrusions could alter the final reading, similar to the 2019 event where temperatures surged past 40°C[3][9]. The market currently assigns a 45% probability to 34°C and 28% to 35°C, indicating a tight distribution around the forecasted high rather than a wide spread of possibilities[1]. Any deviation from the BBC Weather prediction of sunny intervals and a moderate breeze would be the primary catalyst for a sharp price movement before the 12:00 UTC deadline[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.