Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s July 12, 2026 high temperature will be recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station, with resolution based on Wunderground’s daily maximum for that date. The crowd-implied 0% probability for any outcome suggests the market currently expects no valid reading or is mispriced, yet historical July highs at KSFO consistently fall between 67°F and 79°F, with an average of 73°F [2][4].

Recent data underscores the region’s cooling trend: SFO Airport recorded its coldest first half of summer since 1965, with an average maximum of just 67.6°F through July 15 [5]. Comparable cases from recent years show July 12 highs typically landing in the 68–75°F band, making extreme outliers unlikely unless a rare heat dome develops. The 68–69°F range previously held 37.5% implied probability for a nearby July date, indicating market sensitivity to this cooler baseline [1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for KSFO, which currently projects a high of 75°F on July 12, rising to 77°F by July 13 [2][7]. Key catalysts include any sudden shifts in marine layer breakdown or offshore flow, which could push temperatures above 79°F. No suspensions or injuries apply here, but the dependency on Wunderground’s official KSFO record means traders must verify data availability before settlement on 2026-07-12T12:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.