Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco International Airport is poised to record its peak July heat on 13 July 2026, with the market pricing a 7% chance that temperatures will breach the upper threshold implied by the current line. Historical data shows KSFO rarely exceeds 87°F in July, a record tied in 2013 and set in 1973, while typical mid-July highs hover near 73–75°F [1][6]. The current 7% probability suggests traders are betting on an outlier heatwave, yet comparable Bay Area events—such as the 2013 spike or the 1972 Healdsburg record of 116°F—remain geographically isolated from the coastal airport’s microclimate [1][2].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 72-hour forecast for KSFO, specifically any incoming marine layer breakdown or high-pressure ridge buildup over the Central Valley, which could funnel hotter air toward the coast [8]. A recent NBC Bay Area report noted that heat waves in the region often coincide with record-breaking temps at inland stations, but KSFO’s proximity to the Pacific usually caps extremes [1]. Watch for updates on the 12 July evening model runs; if the ridge strengthens, the probability of a record-breaking day could shift sharply before the 13 July 12:00Z settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.