Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's Incheon International Airport will record its highest temperature on 15 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market resolves to whichever temperature band contains the peak reading logged at the station that day, measured in Celsius.

August represents Seoul's hottest month, with historical highs typically ranging between 32–35°C at Incheon. The 15th falls mid-month when summer heat peaks before the occasional late-August monsoon pattern begins. Over the past decade, Incheon has recorded August highs exceeding 33°C on roughly 60% of days between the 10th and 20th, with extreme readings above 36°C occurring in approximately one in three years during this window. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool August or uncertainty about the specific date's conditions relative to adjacent days.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration, typically issued in early August, which provide guidance on whether the month will trend above or below the 30-year normal. El Niño or La Niña conditions can shift August temperatures by 1–2°C across East Asia. Additionally, the timing of the East Asian summer monsoon's onset—usually late August—affects whether high-pressure systems dominate mid-month or moisture-laden systems move in earlier than average. Real-time forecasts become actionable only in the final week before settlement.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?

Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.