Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is bracing for peak summer heat as July 12, 2026, arrives with current conditions showing fog and a cool 52°F at the nearby Kimp’O Airport, a stark contrast to the intense daytime highs typical for this date [6]. The market’s 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects the Incheon International Airport station to record a temperature well below the threshold required for a “YES” outcome, likely due to the immediate presence of fog and lower morning temperatures [6].

Historical data frames this expectation against a backdrop of record-breaking heat; July 2025 saw Seoul break a century-old record with 22 consecutive “tropical nights” above 25°C, while the country recently set an all-time high of 41.0°C at Hongcheon [1][2]. Average daily highs in Seoul for mid-July typically reach 85°F (29.4°C), rarely exceeding 91°F (32.8°C), suggesting the threshold for this market may be set significantly above standard seasonal peaks [5]. The 0% probability suggests traders believe the specific 2026 conditions will not reach this extreme, despite the region’s recent trend toward hotter summers [7][8].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Incheon station, as the settlement depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded for all times on 12 July [10]. Key catalysts include the dissipation of the current fog, which could allow rapid temperature spikes, and any official heat advisories from the Korea Meteorological Administration [6]. Given the 117-year record of 37.7°C reached in early July 2025, any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind patterns could drastically alter the day’s peak, though current fog suggests a muted start [8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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