Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently experiencing a heatwave as traders assess the likelihood of the highest temperature on 13 July 2026 reaching specific thresholds at Incheon International Airport. The market currently assigns a 0% probability to any outcome resolving as a "YES" for a specific unlisted condition, while the crowd-implied frontrunner for the actual temperature is 32°C at 42%, followed by 33°C at 28% [1]. This distribution reflects a consensus that temperatures will be high but likely stay below the extreme 37.8°C recorded in early July 2023, which was the hottest early July in 117 years [2][6].

Historical data suggests July highs in Seoul typically range between 27°C and 35°C, rarely exceeding 35°C unless under exceptional heatwave conditions [5]. The recent record of 37.7°C in Seoul during early July 2023 serves as a critical upper bound for comparable cases, indicating that while extreme heat is possible, the market’s current pricing for 32°C and 33°C aligns with a "hot but not record-breaking" scenario [6]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for the specific "YES" condition likely stems from the market resolving to a temperature range rather than a binary event, or the condition being set above the probable 34°C threshold which holds only an 8% chance [1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, as the market resolves strictly on the highest temperature recorded for all times on 13 July 2026 [1]. Key catalysts include overnight tropical night conditions, which have recently broken century-old records with Seoul staying above 25°C for 22 consecutive nights, potentially pushing daytime peaks higher [3]. Any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation, such as the passing clouds noted in recent past weather data, could act as immediate volatility drivers for the final settlement figure [8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.