Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 16 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by the highest reading captured during that calendar day in degrees Celsius.

August in Tokyo typically sees peak summer heat, with historical daily maxima regularly exceeding 35°C during mid-month. Data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that 16 August has produced temperatures between 33–37°C over the past two decades, with 2019 recording 36.4°C and 2015 reaching 37.1°C on that specific date. The current 0% implied probability suggests the market may be miscalibrated relative to seasonal norms, as temperatures in this range occur with high frequency during Tokyo's peak summer period. Comparable August dates at Haneda have consistently fallen within the 34–36°C band, making extreme outliers (either unusually cool or exceptionally hot) less probable than mid-range outcomes.

The primary variable affecting 16 August 2026 will be the strength and positioning of the Pacific high-pressure system dominating East Asia in mid-August, alongside any tropical cyclone activity in the region during early-to-mid August that might alter atmospheric conditions. Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal forecasts, typically released in July 2026, will provide initial guidance on whether that summer will trend warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal. Traders should monitor typhoon tracking models from late July onwards, as storm systems can suppress temperatures significantly, though August 16 timing makes direct impact less likely than indirect atmospheric effects.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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