Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 14 July 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must assess the likelihood of various temperature bands before the morning observation period concludes in Japan.

July represents the height of Tokyo's summer season, with typical daily highs ranging between 32–35°C, though heat waves can push readings above 37°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either heavily discounting extreme heat outcomes or the market has insufficient liquidity. Historical July records at Haneda show temperatures have exceeded 37°C in roughly one-third of years over the past two decades, with the station's all-time July high reaching 39.5°C in 2013. Recent summers (2022–2024) have seen increasingly frequent days above 35°C, reflecting broader warming trends in the region.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early July, which typically provide reliable 10–14 day outlooks for heat patterns. El Niño or La Niña conditions heading into northern hemisphere summer can meaningfully shift temperature distributions; the current ENSO phase will be established well before mid-July. Urban heat island effects around Haneda have intensified with airport expansion, potentially raising baseline temperatures compared to decades-old records. Real-time weather models from late June onwards will offer the most actionable data for assessing which temperature bands carry genuine probability.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.