Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the daily peak temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 30 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific range suggests the market expects extreme uncertainty or a lack of consensus on the likely outcome, despite historical data pointing to consistent summer highs.

Historically, late June in Tokyo marks the onset of the hot season, with average daily highs exceeding 79°F (26°C) and frequent peaks above 35°C. In June 2025, Japan recorded its hottest month on record, with temperatures reaching 41.2°C in Tamba and widespread heatstroke warnings across 33 prefectures [2]. Tokyo itself has logged record heatwaves, including a 41.8°C peak and 10 consecutive days above 35°C in recent years [6][10]. These patterns frame the 0% probability not as disbelief in heat, but as a signal that the market cannot yet pin a precise range amid escalating climate volatility.

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for Haneda, particularly the 6:30 am and midday readings, as well as national heatwave advisories from NHK and the Fire and Disaster Management Agency [2]. Any sudden shifts in regional forecasts—such as those from AccuWeather, which projects Haneda’s June 2026 highs between 75°F and 83°F (24°C–28°C) [4]—could rapidly alter implied probabilities. With settlement ending 12:00 UTC on 30 June, real-time data from the National Weather Service [3] and JAL’s airport weather feed [9] will be critical catalysts for price movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.