Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's lowest daily temperature on 13 July 2026 will be measured and recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory, with settlement determined by the absolute daily minimum figure published in their Daily Extract dataset. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete market formation or expectation that conditions will fall outside the lowest available bracket.

July in Hong Kong typically sees minimum temperatures between 26–28°C, with the city's subtropical climate producing consistently warm overnight conditions during the summer monsoon season. Historical data from the Observatory shows that daily minima below 24°C are exceptionally rare in mid-July, with most years recording overnight lows in the 26–27°C range. The lowest July temperature on record for Hong Kong is 20.3°C, recorded in 1961, though such extremes are separated by decades. Recent summers have tracked warmer than historical averages, with 2023 and 2024 both registering notably elevated overnight temperatures during July.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any published advisories regarding tropical systems or unusual atmospheric patterns in the weeks preceding 13 July 2026. The South China Sea typhoon season peaks in August and September, but early-season systems occasionally affect July conditions. Temperature data becomes final only after the Observatory publishes its Daily Extract, which typically occurs within days of the measurement date. Market resolution cannot occur until this official dataset is available and verified.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.