Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is experiencing its peak summer heat today, with the city’s hottest month of July delivering daytime highs that routinely climb between 29°C and 37°C, occasionally reaching 38°C under clear skies [2][5]. The settlement window for this market closes at noon UTC on 13 July 2026, capturing the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, where current forecasts predict a maximum of 34°C under clear afternoon conditions [3]. Despite the 0% crowd-implied probability for the YES outcome, historical data confirms July is the hottest month at this location, with an average high of 85°F (approximately 29.4°C) and frequent peaks well above 30°C [6].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground and AccuWeather, as afternoon showers or thunderstorms could suppress temperatures below expected ranges [2][7]. The National Weather Service recorded temperatures rising from 81°F at 2:00 am to 85°F by early morning on 13 July, indicating a steady climb toward the day’s peak [8]. Key catalysts include the timing of any precipitation events, which are forecast for the afternoon, and wind patterns that may influence heat retention. With 20 rainy days typical in July and 188mm of monthly rainfall, humidity levels remain high, creating conditions similar to Singapore or Kuala Lumpur where heat feels more intense [5].

Historical comparisons show that while average highs sit around 29–30°C, extreme days in Chengdu’s July climate frequently breach 35°C, making the 0% probability appear misaligned with seasonal norms [2][5]. The settlement relies solely on Wunderground’s daily maximum for ZUUU, meaning even brief spikes above 34°C would resolve the market differently than current expectations suggest [3]. Traders must watch for sudden cloud cover or storm development, which could alter the temperature trajectory before the 12:00 UTC cutoff.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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