Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's summer climate in mid-August typically sits at the peak of the monsoon season, with daily highs routinely exceeding 30°C. The Incheon International Airport weather station, which serves as the official measurement point for this market, has recorded August temperatures ranging from 28°C to 35°C over the past decade, with extremes occasionally pushing toward 36°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature threshold being queried or have discounted the likelihood of an exceptionally hot day occurring on that particular date.

Historical August data from Incheon shows that temperatures above 34°C occur roughly once every two to three years during this month, whilst readings above 32°C are considerably more common. The distinction between the Daily Observations table and the Day High & Low summary section on Weather Underground can occasionally produce minor variations, though these typically amount to tenths of a degree rather than full-degree differences. Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts from late July onwards, as the East Asian summer monsoon pattern and any tropical cyclone activity in the region can substantially shift temperature outcomes.

The settlement mechanism's reliance on Incheon Airport data rather than central Seoul readings is material, as airport stations often record slightly different temperatures due to surface characteristics and exposure. Any atmospheric blocking pattern that diverts monsoon moisture or allows high-pressure systems to dominate the peninsula would be the primary catalyst affecting whether August 13 falls into higher or lower temperature brackets.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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